Seminar: "Persistent temperature effects on agricultural productivity imply large climate change damages" - Ariel Ortiz-Bobea

Join us for a presentation by Ariel Ortiz-Bobea is an Associate Professor in Applied Economics and Policy at Cornell University.

Seminar title: Persistent temperature effects on agricultural productivity imply large climate change damages

Abstract: Climate change damages depend critically on how productivity responds to temperature shocks over time. Most existing work treats the effects of these shocks as either short-lived, implying small damages, or permanent, implying damages an order of magnitude larger. Here we explore intermediate dynamics for global agriculture and their implications for climate change damages. We find that a temperature shock lowers productivity for multiple years, with losses that deepen over time. This persistent productivity loss is associated with a short-lived output response coupled with a gradual and sustained rise in certain inputs (e.g. fertilizer, labor and feed). We find a similar pattern when analyzing U.S. agricultural productivity accounts. Climate change damage estimates that account for persistence imply substantial declines in global agricultural productivity, both historically and by the middle of the century.

Short bio: Ariel Ortiz-Bobea is Associate Professor in Applied Economics and Policy at Cornell University, with joint appointments in the Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management and the Brooks School of Public Policy. He is also a Faculty Fellow at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. His research broadly focuses on how people cope and adapt to environmental change, particularly in agriculture. Prior to Cornell, he was a Fellow at Resources for the Future. Before graduate school, he served as Special Assistant to the Minister of the Environment of the Dominican Republic. He holds a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Maryland, an MPA from the Maxwell School at Syracuse University, and a Diplôme d'Ingénieur from AgroParisTech in France. He serves in editorial roles at several journals, including the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Climatic Change, Environmental Research: Food Systems, and the Journal of Wine Economics.